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Geopolitical Tensions in the Red Sea and Their Impact on Global Trade

Yemen Monitor/Reports Unit:

Researcher Ayman Imtiaz, in a report published on the Modern Diplomacy website, noted that the Red Sea is one of the most important maritime corridors in the world, linking the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal. This vital passage serves as a major chokepoint, facilitating the transit of around 12% of global trade.

With escalating geopolitical tensions and conflicts, the Red Sea has become an increasingly unstable region. Former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski warned that Eurasia is witnessing a continuous struggle for global supremacy, with the Red Sea at the heart of these dynamics.

The current crisis has begun to impact international trade and security, altering the calculations of global powers.

Historically, the Red Sea has been a center of trade and imperial conflicts. Throughout the ages, powers such as Egypt, the Romans, and the Ottomans competed for control of its ports. With the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, the Red Sea became the most critical shortcut for maritime trade. By the 21st century, a significant proportion of global trade and container traffic passed through its waters. However, coastal states continue to face major challenges in securing this crucial maritime artery.

The Red Sea is considered a geostrategic corridor of both economic and military significance, with littoral states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia competing alongside global powers like the US and China. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the most vital maritime passages, and any disruption in this area could have severe repercussions on global markets.

Multiple geopolitical flashpoints exist within the Red Sea, including the conflict in Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthi forces have been attacking ships, increasing the risks to global trade. In response, Saudi Arabia and its allies have ramped up maritime security operations, but persistent threats from the Houthis remain.

There is also strategic competition between the US and China. China’s expansion into the Red Sea, notably through its military base in Djibouti, has raised Western concerns. China is seen as a challenger to U.S. dominance in the region, leading to the militarization of the Red Sea and an increased presence of U.S. naval patrols.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Egypt play a pivotal role in securing the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia relies on maritime stability for its future development projects, while Egypt depends heavily on Suez Canal revenues.

Current developments indicate that global trade is facing significant challenges due to security threats. Insurance premiums for ships have risen sharply, and many shipping companies are considering alternative routes, driving up transportation costs and ultimately increasing commodity prices.

The Red Sea is also a critical corridor for oil and natural gas shipments, and any disruption could cause sharp fluctuations in energy prices. With multiple military forces operating in the region, the risk of escalation or accidental confrontation remains high, further destabilizing global trade.

The geopolitical landscape of the Red Sea is expected to continue evolving, shaped by both global and regional power struggles.

Diplomatic mediation efforts between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could be key to achieving stability, though military escalation risks exacerbating the situation.

The Red Sea crisis demands urgent international attention — whether through diplomacy, military strategies, or technological solutions — to ensure the security of this vital maritime corridor.

 

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