Fingers on the Trigger… Eyes on Survival: Why do the Houthis Maintain “Cautious Silence”?

Yemen Monitor / Reports Unit / Exclusive:

At a time when the US-Israeli war is shaking the pillars of the Iranian regime and placing the Middle East on the crater of a volcano, a fundamental question arises about the silence of the Yemeni front. While US-Israeli strikes continue to hit Tehran—leading to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in March 2026—the Houthi group has so far limited itself to enthusiastic speeches and condemnatory marches without direct military involvement.

This scene places the group, which has long raised the slogan “Death to America, Death to Israel,” before a true test between its deep-rooted ideology and the calculations of political and military survival within a newly forming regional order.

Strategy of “Bitter Patience” and the Erosion of the Axis of Resistance

Despite the fiery statements of the group’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, who confirmed last Thursday that “our fingers are on the trigger, and we are ready to respond at any moment,” the field reality points to a state of “strategic deliberation.” Experts believe this reluctance stems from the group now representing the “last line of defense” for the Axis of Resistance after other regional arms, such as Hezbollah and militias in Iraq, were subjected to extensive attrition and destruction. Houthi intervention at this stage might not shift the balance of power in Tehran’s favor, but could instead lead to Iran losing its last fortified stronghold in the region.

Nadwa Al-Dawsari, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, explained to Fox News that the current Houthi silence is not an absence from the scene, but rather protection for the last fortress of the Iranian axis. Al-Dawsari goes further in her analysis of the future relationship with Tehran should the regime change, noting that the Iranian bet on Yemen is a long-term strategic one: “If the Iranian regime collapses and a new one emerges, I believe the IRGC will regroup in Yemen or Somalia; Yemen is the primary and decisive ally for them, and the IRGC cannot afford to lose the Houthis.”

Furthermore, the group suffers from a narrow “margin of maneuver.” Analyst Abdulghani Al-Iryani from Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies told “DW” that the Houthis’ added value lay in their ability to cause trouble on behalf of Tehran with a “margin of deniability.” As the conflict turned into a direct and comprehensive confrontation, the value of this type of proxy war vanished. Al-Iryani expects that the decline of the Iranian role will force the Houthis to eventually negotiate a fair peace agreement to ensure their survival as a political force.

The “Decapitation” Obsession and US-Israeli Deterrence

The Houthi hesitation cannot be separated from the crushing blows the group received during 2025. In August of last year, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Sana’a, resulting in the death of 12 senior leaders, including Prime Minister Ahmed Al-Rahwi and Chief of Staff Mohammed Al-Ghamari. These heavy human losses created a state of extreme caution among the Houthi leadership, who now fear “decapitation operations” and precise Israeli intelligence tracking.

Additionally, the return of President Donald Trump and his designation of the group as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) fundamentally changed the rules of engagement. Luca Nevola, a senior analyst at (ACLED), confirms that the Houthis’ top priority now is avoiding direct American retaliation that could end their authority. The group prefers to keep its arsenal as a deterrent tool for internal survival.

Axis Affiliation vs. Claims of Independence

Political analyst Adel Dashela believes the group is trying to play a double game between axis affiliation and claiming independence to portray themselves as a faction not subject to Tehran’s orders. Meanwhile, Thomas Volk of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation explains that neutralizing the Iranian regime would eventually mean the weakening or elimination of its proxies who rely on it financially and militarily.

On the other hand, journalist Saddam Al-Haribi told Al Jazeera English that Houthi silence is a central decision from Tehran, aiming to save the group for the next stage, and that their entry into the war is only a matter of timing determined by Iran.

Ultimately, the Houthi position remains tied to the continuity of Iranian support. A weakened center in Tehran would mean the drying up of arms, funding, and political cover, which may force them into peace negotiations as the only option to ensure their continued existence as an internal political force.