Yemen Monitor / Agencies / Newsroom:
A new report by the French website Dark Box has revealed deep strategic shifts in the Red Sea region and the Horn of Africa, confirming that the silent conflict between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has moved from “competition between allies” to an open confrontation aimed at reshaping the balance of power in the region.
According to leaked information reviewed by the site, Saudi Arabia is moving toward building new and expanded security and military arrangements with both Egypt and Somalia. These steps come as a direct response to what the report described as “fragmentation projects” led by the UAE through its proxies in the region, indicating that the era of managing differences behind closed doors has ended in favor of a policy of overt deterrence.
Yemen: A Conflict Between the “State” and “Functional Mini-States”
The report explained that the Yemeni file was the spark that ignited the situation, as Riyadh shifted from containment to deterrence, particularly with the escalating activity of the Southern Transitional Council.
The Saudi Vision: Riyadh views secessionist moves as a threat to its national security, warning that they could turn Yemen into a “geography of competing spheres of influence” and functional mini-states ruled by weapons and ports rather than institutions.
The Emirati Role: The documents highlight the UAE as an architect of influence through parallel entities, which Saudi Arabia sees as an attempt to transform security control into long-term political and economic dominance over maritime routes.
The Horn of Africa: Sovereignty Versus Fragmentation
Tensions then moved to the Somali arena, where the report considered Mogadishu’s cancellation of security agreements with the UAE a sovereign step driven by strategic rapprochement with Riyadh.
“Saudi Arabia invested in the moment to present itself as a guarantor of Somalia’s unity, in the face of an Emirati approach based on direct dealings with secessionist regions (Somaliland and Puntland) independently of the central government.”
The Egyptian–Saudi–Somali Triangle
Cairo entered the scene forcefully as a party no longer willing to bear the “cost of neutrality.” Leaks indicate that Egypt views the movements of UAE-backed proxies as a direct threat to the security of the Suez Canal and its national economy. This convergence of interests with Riyadh produced what the site described as a “deterrence bloc,” aimed at: consolidating the borders of nation-states and preventing their fragmentation; protecting maritime corridors from the influence of informal entities; and drying up Abu Dhabi’s ability to use ports as tools of regional pressure.
Dark Box concludes its report by noting that the region is witnessing a battle over “political identity”: Will the region be governed through the legitimacy of states and institutions (the Saudi-Egyptian-Somali project), or through the legitimacy of militias and proxies (the Emirati project)? Current indicators, the report says, confirm that Riyadh has decided to put an end to projects operating under the guise of “partnership” while fundamentally threatening the stability of the central state.
