Khamenei Adviser: Calm in Bab al-Mandab Could Disappear Due to a “Miscalculation”

Yemen Monitor / Tehran / Exclusive:

Tehran has directly linked the current security stability in the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the ongoing military confrontation in the region, warning Tel Aviv against “misjudging” the current situation. It cited Iran’s recent missile strikes as the first phase of a broader series of responses by the “Axis of Resistance,” including threats to close vital maritime waterways.

Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, said that what he described as Israeli recklessness in Beirut had already triggered the first stage of the Axis of Resistance’s chain reaction, warning Tel Aviv against making a “miscalculation” regarding the current circumstances.

Air-raid sirens sounded across Israel on Sunday after Iran targeted it with missiles for the first time since a ceasefire was announced in April. Tehran described the attack as a “warning” following the bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs on the 100th day of the war. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would ask Israel not to retaliate.

In remarks highlighting the scale of the geopolitical escalation, Velayati stressed the importance of nearby maritime routes, stating:

“The current security stability in Bab al-Mandab should not lead the enemy to make a mistake in its assessment.”

He added directly that:

“The Axis of Resistance has the full capability to close both waterways,”

in an apparent reference to the Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz straits.

These unprecedented Iranian threats come after extensive Iranian missile attacks against targets inside Israel, launched in response to the recent military escalation in Lebanon, the bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the assassination of prominent leaders.

The Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab front has witnessed a relative state of restraint by the Houthi movement, which has refrained from carrying out military operations targeting international shipping lanes since the current round of confrontations began on February 28, despite escalating regional tensions and recent Iranian threats to expand the maritime dimension of the conflict.

The Houthis’ decision not to conduct operations in the Red Sea since February reflects a delicate field equation, indicating the group’s desire—at least for now—to avoid being drawn into a full-scale maritime and aerial confrontation while preserving the waterways issue as a major strategic pressure tool. However, Iran’s direct linkage between the stability of Bab al-Mandab and the ongoing escalation in Lebanon suggests that the current state of restraint is under threat, and that Yemen’s maritime front remains dependent on regional balances and the broader confrontation calculations between Iran and Israel.