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Report Presents Three Scenarios for Houthis’ Future… Between Military Escalation and Political Settlement

Yemen Monitor / Newsroom:

A recent report issued by  Mokha Center for Strategic Studies revealed a growing number of crises facing the Houthi movement in Yemen, threatening its ability to maintain control and make decisive decisions in the near future.

The report pointed to the deteriorating economic and living conditions in areas under Houthi control, with rising public discontent over shortages of food, electricity, and water. It noted that the group has failed to improve basic services, leading to increasing resentment among the population.

The report also highlighted sharp internal political disputes between the Houthis and the General People’s Congress (GPC), particularly following the killing of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh by the group. This event deepened internal divisions and led to the removal of GPC members from leadership positions.

According to the report, the Houthis have suffered significant losses among their military leaders due to intense airstrikes, creating organizational gaps and negatively impacting coordination across various battlefronts.

On the international level, pressure on the group has increased as Iranian military and financial support has waned, and as the US and its allies have designated the Houthis as a terrorist organization — further isolating them on the global stage.

The report outlined three possible scenarios for the Houthis’ future:

  1. Continued military escalation against Saudi Arabia and Western interests to strengthen their bargaining position.
  2. De-escalation and national reconciliation with the legitimate government as part of a comprehensive political process.
  3. A hybrid scenario combining limited escalation with political de-escalation, aimed at preserving the group’s influence in Yemen’s political landscape.

The report concluded that the Houthis face difficult choices between continuing the fight or entering a political settlement that may require concessions. Their ability to sustain prolonged conflict remains doubtful amid internal crises and declining regional support. However, divisions within the legitimate government could offer the group certain opportunities in the future.

Sources at the Al-Mokha Center added that the current situation strongly indicates the group is heading into a critical phase that will strain its capacity to control Yemen’s fate.

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