Yemen Monitor/ Marib/ Exclusive:
A recent strategic assessment issued by the “Abaad Center for Studies and Research” revealed that the Houthi group is currently in a state of “strategic anticipation” mixed with caution following the collapse of Iranian command-and-control centers and the killing of the Supreme Leader.
The center confirmed that the group finds itself today facing a historical dilemma, torn between its ideological commitments to the “Unity of Fronts” and the necessity of preserving its political gains while avoiding “decapitation” strikes that could end its existence in Yemen.
The Middle East entered a stage of “geopolitical fluidity” following the launch of the “Epic Fury” operation last February, placing the “Axis” parties in Yemen before a fateful reckoning. According to the position paper issued by the “Abaad” Center, the Houthis are currently practicing a policy of “strategic maneuvering,” separating escalatory rhetoric from field military restraint while waiting for the features of the new leadership in Tehran to become clear.
“Abaad” Center believes that the shock caused by bunker-buster bombs in Tehran was immediately reflected in the movements of Houthi leaders in Sana’a and Sa’ada. The report monitored a complete disappearance of high-ranking leaders from public view, and the adoption of “primitive,” technologically isolated communication circles to evade American intelligence tracking.
On the ground, the center indicates that the group has moved missile launch pads and drones to previously undiscovered mountain hideouts, along with a full recall of recruits and the activation of emergency committees in governorates under their control, in anticipation of the confrontation turning into an all-out war targeting the movement’s leadership directly.
Qualitative Development: The “Saturation” Arsenal and Hydrogen Fuel
The assessment also highlighted a “frightening technological development” in the group’s arsenal, confirming that it now possesses a new generation of drones powered by hydrogen fuel cell technology, allowing them to remain airborne for long periods and fly at very low altitudes to evade radar detection.
The report also pointed to the Houthis’ use of “torpedoes” and suicide drone submarines, technologies they acquired in late 2025. They follow a “saturation” strategy by launching dozens of naval and aerial units simultaneously to distract advanced Western defenses in the Gulf of Aden.
“Abaad” warned of Houthi ambitions to expand beyond the Red Sea geography, as information indicates high-level coordination with the Somali “Al-Shabaab” movement to create a “naval pincer” that attacks ships from both the Yemeni and African coasts at once.
Furthermore, the Houthis have placed American bases in Gulf countries and Djibouti within their targeting circle, considering them “legitimate targets” outside the framework of previous understandings with Washington.
Future Scenarios: The Difficult Roadmap
The Abaad Center laid out four possible scenarios for the group’s movements in the coming phase:
- Comprehensive Military Involvement (Most Likely): Driven by “preemptive defense,” as the group believes that the fall of Tehran inevitably means that Sana’a’s turn is next, pushing them to open all fronts.
- Phased Escalation (Possible): Through precisely calculated shows of force aimed at raising the economic cost for the West without sliding into a confrontation that eliminates the leadership.
- Limited Escalation (Unlikely): Settling for symbolic operations to save face before their popular base and the Axis, while maintaining the “May 2025” truce with Washington.
- Retrenchment and Internal Retreat (Rare): In the event of Iran’s total collapse, the Houthis might decide on a tactical de-linking and focus on seizing local oil resources (Marib and Shabwah) to impose a financial reality that secures their survival.
