Yemen Monitor / Newsroom:
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects demand for air cargo to remain strong, even with the possible future resumption of maritime shipping through the Red Sea.
In its report on sustainability and economic outlook, the organization projected a 6% growth in air cargo volumes by 2025.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated during the IATA World Cargo Symposium that the industry is capable of withstanding the return of maritime shipping, although such a shift remains unlikely in the near term.
Regarding the potential impact of this return on air cargo, Walsh noted that “the effect will be minimal.” He explained that air cargo serves time-sensitive markets, making it the preferred option for transporting high-value goods.
Air cargo shipments are critical when timing is essential, further supporting the decision to choose air over sea transport. In December, IATA predicted a 5.8% increase in air cargo volumes, reaching 72.5 million tonnes by 2025, driven by the continued rise of e-commerce.
Following the Red Sea crisis, companies saw increased demand for air freight due to the rerouting of maritime vessels. With the recent ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hamas, discussions have resumed over how quickly ships might return to the Red Sea and what impact that might have on air cargo.
Some suggest that the adaptation to new shipping routes around the Red Sea may be long-term, leading shippers to remain satisfied with air transport.
Despite the end of the ceasefire, uncertainty still clouds hopes of returning to the Suez Canal. Walsh emphasized that any shift from air to sea transport would be “extremely marginal.”
He pointed out that revenue is the key concern in this context, as transport prices tend to rise when shipping options are limited. He also noted that e-commerce — a major driver of air cargo growth — remains stable, indicating a positive outlook for the sector.
On geopolitical impacts, Walsh mentioned that changes in U.S. tariffs might affect shipments but anticipated that an increase in shipping volumes is more likely than any long-term decline in trade volumes.
He also reflected on the period from 2010 to 2019, during which air cargo represented 13% of the industry’s revenue. That share is expected to rise to 15.6% this year, highlighting the sector’s growing importance in the current global climate.
The next air cargo demand forecast is scheduled to be released during IATA’s Annual General Meeting in early June.
