Yemen Monitor / Marib / Agencies:
Experts believe that a military offensive by Yemen’s internationally recognized government to retake control of a major port from the Houthi rebels could begin soon. However, there has been little confirmation that the operation will receive the necessary U.S. backing to succeed, according to a report by an Emirati English-language newspaper on Friday.
Iran-backed Houthi forces seized control of Hodeidah Port in 2021. It serves as a critical entry point for humanitarian aid into Yemen and contains oil storage facilities.
Experts told The National newspaper that following renewed U.S. airstrikes on the Houthis, armed groups aligned with the internationally recognized government are preparing to advance toward Hodeidah. Reportedly, strikes on the coastal city have killed high-profile Houthi figures and weakened the group.
According to Abdulaziz Al-Saker, founder of the Gulf Research Center, around 80,000 troops are being mobilized. Farah Al-Muslimi, a fellow at Chatham House, added that plans are not limited to Hodeidah Port but also include its surrounding areas and the province of Taiz to the south.
Capturing Hodeidah would represent a “foundation” for seizing the capital, Sana’a, which has been under Houthi control since 2014. “It’s always been that if Hodeidah falls, Sana’a is next,” said Al-Muslimi. “We are in the countdown phase to the end of the Houthis.”
The group seized northern Yemen in 2014, igniting a civil war. A Saudi-led coalition later intervened at the request of the internationally recognized government.
Since 2023, the Houthis have launched attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which the group claims are in solidarity with the people of Gaza. These attacks have triggered U.S. airstrikes on Houthi positions.
Post-War Concerns
However, the push to retake Hodeidah comes with challenges. Al-Muslimi noted that U.S. military support is not guaranteed due to Washington’s “inconsistent” foreign policy on Yemen. “There is a lot of illusion from the Yemeni government that they will be armed by the US or given air cover,” he said.
The US has been adamant about not getting directly involved in the Yemeni conflict. A Saudi-brokered peace process—handed over to the UN last year—has stalled due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said this week that General Michael Kurilla met with Yemeni Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Sagheer Hammoud Aziz and discussed “ongoing efforts against Iran-backed Houthis, including the current operation aimed at restoring freedom of navigation.”
Al-Muslimi added that any military operation in Hodeidah would be politically difficult, as it would violate the 2018 UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement, which called on all parties to withdraw from the coastal city—a condition the Houthis never fulfilled.
Despite the military momentum, there are concerns that the internationally recognized government would lack legitimacy in Sana’a and has limited governing capacity. Its record in southern Yemen has been marked by poor governance, electricity shortages, and rising food prices.
“My honest concern is the day after,” Al-Muslimi said. “If they take Sana’a, what can they offer the people to make them feel that life is now back to normal, that there is safety, security, and rule of law”?
These risks are heightened by the increasing isolation of the U.S. and the UK—two of Yemen’s largest donors—both of which have recently cut foreign aid programs. “The US is no longer in the business of building government capacity,” said Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.
